NAICS 44-45

Retail Trade in Modesto, CA

Metro Market Score 64.0 (Difficult), ranked #301 of 378 metros. 1,465 establishments, 22,731 jobs.

Metro Market Assessment

Metro Market Score 64.0
Favorable 0-35
Moderate 35-48
Challenging 48-60
Difficult 60+
Difficult

ⓘ Lower is better. Relative to national retail trade average.

💰High-Cost Market⚡Rising Wages

Modesto stands out for high retail trade labor costs. Wage competitiveness hits 84.1 (above the 70th percentile of metros), and year-over-year wage pressure at 81.3 signals continued increases. Plan for higher payroll if entering this market.

Industry Concentration
51.1
LQ: 1.14
Rank #193 of 378 metros
Wage Competitiveness
84.1
$42,242 avg wage
Growth Trend
53.4
Employment growth index
Rank #177 of 378 metros
Wage Pressure
81.3
YoY wage change index

1,465 Retail Trade Firms in Modesto

1,465
Establishments
+1.0% YoY
22,731
Total Employment
-0.1% YoY
$42,242
Average Annual Wage
+3.8% YoY
1.14
Location Quotient
Above national avg

Modesto vs California Statewide

How this metro's retail trade market compares to California overall. The state ranks #28/51 for entry risk.

Measure Modesto CA Statewide
Overall Score 64.0 Difficult 44.0 Elevated
Score Type Metro Market Score Entry Risk Score
Rank #301 of 378 metros #28 of 51 states

Metro and state scores use different methodologies (metro has 4 QCEW-based metrics; state adds BDS survival and momentum data). Direct score comparisons are approximate.

Other Industries in Modesto

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 24.5 Information 33.7 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 35.8 Finance and Insurance 43.8 Other Services 45.5 Construction 48.2 Administrative and Support Services 52.6 Healthcare and Social Assistance 55.4 Accommodation and Food Services 78.3

Retail Trade in Other California Metros

Fresno 35.8 #28/378 Visalia 38.4 #39/378 Napa 38.8 #43/378 Santa Maria-Santa Barbara 51.6 #157/378 El Centro 53.6 #180/378 Salinas 53.7 #184/378 Hanford-Corcoran 55.6 #204/378 Merced 56.2 #211/378 Bakersfield-Delano 56.4 #213/378 Yuba City 56.6 #215/378

+ 14 more metros. View all in California →

About Metro Market Score: A weighted composite of industry concentration (25%), wage competitiveness (25%), wage pressure (20%), and employment growth trend (30%). Lower scores indicate more favorable conditions. For Modesto's retail trade sector, the wage competitiveness component (84.1) has the strongest pull on the composite. Metro scores use QCEW data only (no BDS survival data at metro level). Read full methodology →

Data Sources

Data period: 2024. Last updated: April 2026.