NAICS 44-45

Retail Trade in Modesto, CA

Metro Market Score 64.0 (Difficult), ranked #301 of 378 metros. 1,465 establishments, 22,731 jobs.

Metro Market Score 64.0

Favorable 0-35

Moderate 35-48

Challenging 48-60

Difficult 60+

Difficult

ⓘ Lower is better. Relative to national retail trade average.

💰High-Cost Market⚡Rising Wages

Modesto stands out for high retail trade labor costs. Wage competitiveness hits 84.1 (above the 70th percentile of metros), and year-over-year wage pressure at 81.3 signals continued increases. Plan for higher payroll if entering this market.

Industry Concentration

51.1

LQ: 1.14

Rank #193 of 378 metros

Wage Competitiveness

84.1

$42,242 avg wage

Growth Trend

53.4

Employment growth index

Rank #177 of 378 metros

Wage Pressure

81.3

YoY wage change index

1,465 Retail Trade Firms in Modesto

1,465

Establishments

+1.0% YoY

22,731

Total Employment

-0.1% YoY

$42,242

Average Annual Wage

+3.8% YoY

1.14

Location Quotient

Above national avg

Within California

#18 of 25

retail trade metros in state

California state rank

#28 of 51

for retail trade entry risk

vs State Median

+3.4

worse than median (60.6)

Modesto vs California Statewide

How this metro's retail trade market compares to California overall. The state ranks #28/51 for entry risk.

Measure	Modesto	CA Statewide
Overall Score	64.0 Difficult	44.0 Elevated
Score Type	Metro Market Score	Entry Risk Score
Rank	#301 of 378 metros	#28 of 51 states

Metro and state scores use different methodologies (metro has 4 QCEW-based metrics; state adds BDS survival and momentum data). Direct score comparisons are approximate.

Other Industries in Modesto

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 24.5 Information 33.7 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 35.8 Finance and Insurance 43.8 Other Services 45.5 Construction 48.2 Administrative and Support Services 52.6 Healthcare and Social Assistance 55.4 Accommodation and Food Services 78.3

Retail Trade in Other California Metros

Fresno 35.8 #28/378 Visalia 38.4 #39/378 Napa 38.8 #43/378 Santa Maria-Santa Barbara 51.6 #157/378 El Centro 53.6 #180/378 Salinas 53.7 #184/378 Hanford-Corcoran 55.6 #204/378 Merced 56.2 #211/378 Bakersfield-Delano 56.4 #213/378 Yuba City 56.6 #215/378

+ 14 more metros. View all in California →

Retail Trade Metros With Similar Conditions

Metros within 5 points of Modesto's 64.0 score. Useful when comparing markets with comparable entry profiles.

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 64.1 #302/378 Elizabethtown, KY 64.0 #300/378 Elmira, NY 63.9 #299/378 Macon-Bibb County, GA 63.9 #298/378 Billings, MT 64.3 #303/378 Knoxville, TN 63.7 #297/378 Kingston, NY 64.4 #304/378 Flagstaff, AZ 64.4 #305/378 San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA 63.6 #295/378 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR 63.6 #296/378

Retail Trade in States Bordering California

State-level entry risk for retail trade in adjacent states. Use this to weigh cross-border options.

Nevada 37.0 #3/51 Oregon 42.9 #24/51 Arizona 44.9 #32/51

Browse Retail Trade in Other States

State-level entry risk reports for retail trade across all 51 markets, sorted by rank.

About Metro Market Score: A weighted composite of industry concentration (25%), wage competitiveness (25%), wage pressure (20%), and employment growth trend (30%). Lower scores indicate more favorable conditions. For Modesto's retail trade sector, the wage competitiveness component (84.1) has the strongest pull on the composite. Metro scores use QCEW data only (no BDS survival data at metro level). Read full methodology →

Data Sources

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), Bureau of Labor Statistics. MSA-level establishment counts, employment, wages, and location quotients for the Modesto, CA MSA area.

Data period: 2024. Last updated: April 2026.

Metro Market Assessment