NAICS 44-45

Retail Trade Industry: 2026 Market Survival & Risk Analysis

Motor vehicle dealers, food stores, general merchandise, e-commerce

Retail Trade: 1,070,114 Establishments Nationwide

1,070,114
Total Establishments
15,479,193
Total Employment
$40,661
Average Annual Wage
44.6
Average Entry Risk Score

What Drives Retail Trade Risk

Retail faces structural headwinds from e-commerce, making physical-location economics depend heavily on local foot traffic and consumer spending. At $40,661, average wages are the second-lowest of our tracked sectors. States with growing populations and lower commercial real estate costs offer more room for new entrants. High-cost coastal markets consistently show elevated entry risk.

Retail Trade vs. All-Industry Average

How this sector compares to the average across all ten tracked industries.

Avg Entry Risk
44.6 This sector
43.1 All sectors
Avg Annual Wage
$40,661 This sector
$73,293 All sectors
Total Employment
15.5M This sector
9.6M Avg per sector

State Leaderboards for Retail Trade

Lowest Entry Risk

Best overall market conditions

  1. Wisconsin 33.3
  2. Nebraska 35.9
  3. Nevada 37.0
  4. Massachusetts 37.1
  5. Alaska 37.2

Highest Entry Risk

Most competitive markets

  1. Mississippi 59.2
  2. District of Columbia 58.0
  3. New York 57.2
  4. Hawaii 56.1
  5. West Virginia 52.8

Best for Firm Retention

Highest 5-year firm survival rates

  1. North Dakota 100%
  2. Vermont 98.04%
  3. South Dakota 96.08%
  4. Alaska 94.12%
  5. New Hampshire 92.16%

Highest Growth Momentum

Fastest new firm formation

  1. Utah 100
  2. Nevada 94.3
  3. Florida 75.32
  4. Idaho 71.99
  5. Georgia 71.3

Top Metro Markets for Retail Trade

Best and worst metro areas out of 378 with retail trade data.

Most Favorable Metros

Lowest Metro Market Score

  1. Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA 21.5
  2. Gainesville, FL 24.8
  3. Champaign-Urbana, IL 24.9
  4. Columbus, IN 24.9
  5. Las Cruces, NM 26.0

Most Challenging Metros

Highest Metro Market Score

  1. Barnstable Town, MA 83.1
  2. Redding, CA 81.1
  3. Kahului-Wailuku, HI 79.9
  4. Great Falls, MT 78.9
  5. Medford, OR 78.9

Entry Risk by State

Geographic distribution of market entry risk for retail trade. Click any state for detailed analysis.

Entry Risk by State Alaska — 37.2 · #5 Alabama — 46.4 · #36 Arkansas — 51.8 · #44 Arizona — 44.9 · #32 California — 44.0 · #28 Colorado — 42.9 · #23 Connecticut — 44.7 · #31 District of Columbia — 58.0 · #50 Delaware — 41.8 · #19 Florida — 51.0 · #43 Georgia — 47.5 · #38 Hawaii — 56.1 · #48 Iowa — 40.8 · #16 Idaho — 40.1 · #12 Illinois — 48.1 · #39 Indiana — 39.8 · #10 Kansas — 40.4 · #14 Kentucky — 46.4 · #36 Louisiana — 52.3 · #46 Massachusetts — 37.1 · #4 Maryland — 43.6 · #26 Maine — 44.1 · #29 Michigan — 40.5 · #15 Minnesota — 39.6 · #9 Missouri — 50.6 · #42 Mississippi — 59.2 · #51 Montana — 45.8 · #34 North Carolina — 43.4 · #25 North Dakota — 49.9 · #41 Nebraska — 35.9 · #2 New Hampshire — 48.7 · #40 New Jersey — 43.7 · #27 New Mexico — 39.9 · #11 Nevada — 37.0 · #3 New York — 57.2 · #49 Ohio — 39.2 · #8 Oklahoma — 46.3 · #35 Oregon — 42.9 · #24 Pennsylvania — 38.1 · #6 Rhode Island — 42.3 · #21 South Carolina — 44.3 · #30 South Dakota — 38.9 · #7 Tennessee — 42.8 · #22 Texas — 41.6 · #17 Utah — 40.3 · #13 Virginia — 41.6 · #17 Vermont — 52.1 · #45 Washington — 42.0 · #20 Wisconsin — 33.3 · #1 West Virginia — 52.8 · #47 Wyoming — 44.9 · #33
Low Moderate Elevated High

Tap a state to view details

All 51 States Ranked for Retail Trade Entry Risk

Complete ranking of all 51 states by Entry Risk Score for retail trade. Lower score indicates better market conditions for new entrants.

Retail Trade Entry Risk by State

Rank State Risk Score Classification
#1 Wisconsin 33.3 moderate
#2 Nebraska 35.9 moderate
#3 Nevada 37.0 moderate
#4 Massachusetts 37.1 moderate
#5 Alaska 37.2 moderate
#6 Pennsylvania 38.1 moderate
#7 South Dakota 38.9 moderate
#8 Ohio 39.2 moderate
#9 Minnesota 39.6 moderate
#10 Indiana 39.8 moderate
#11 New Mexico 39.9 moderate
#12 Idaho 40.1 moderate
#13 Utah 40.3 moderate
#14 Kansas 40.4 moderate
#15 Michigan 40.5 moderate
#16 Iowa 40.8 moderate
#17 Virginia 41.6 moderate
#17 Texas 41.6 moderate
#19 Delaware 41.8 moderate
#20 Washington 42.0 elevated
#21 Rhode Island 42.3 elevated
#22 Tennessee 42.8 elevated
#23 Colorado 42.9 elevated
#24 Oregon 42.9 elevated
#25 North Carolina 43.4 elevated
#26 Maryland 43.6 elevated
#27 New Jersey 43.7 elevated
#28 California 44.0 elevated
#29 Maine 44.1 elevated
#30 South Carolina 44.3 elevated
#31 Connecticut 44.7 elevated
#32 Arizona 44.9 elevated
#33 Wyoming 44.9 elevated
#34 Montana 45.8 elevated
#35 Oklahoma 46.3 elevated
#36 Kentucky 46.4 elevated
#36 Alabama 46.4 elevated
#38 Georgia 47.5 elevated
#39 Illinois 48.1 elevated
#40 New Hampshire 48.7 elevated
#41 North Dakota 49.9 elevated
#42 Missouri 50.6 elevated
#43 Florida 51.0 elevated
#44 Arkansas 51.8 elevated
#45 Vermont 52.1 elevated
#46 Louisiana 52.3 elevated
#47 West Virginia 52.8 elevated
#48 Hawaii 56.1 high
#49 New York 57.2 high
#50 District of Columbia 58.0 high
#51 Mississippi 59.2 high

Retail Trade: Frequently Asked Questions

2026 sector data answers to common entry-decision questions.

Which state has the lowest retail trade entry risk in 2026?

Wisconsin ranks #1 with an entry risk score of 33.3, 11.3 points below the 44.6 national average for the retail trade sector.

Which state is the most challenging market for new retail trade businesses?

Mississippi sits at the bottom of the 51-state ranking with an entry risk score of 59.2. New retail trade firms here face structural headwinds across retention, growth momentum, and wage pressure.

How many retail trade establishments operate in the United States?

1,070,114 retail trade establishments are tracked across the 51 U.S. state markets, employing 15,479,193 workers at an average annual wage of $40,661.

Which state has the highest 5-year firm retention for retail trade?

North Dakota leads on firm retention with a 100% 5-year survival percentile. New retail trade establishments in this state clear the 5-year mark at higher rates than 100% of all states.

What is the average entry risk score for retail trade across all U.S. states?

The 51-state average entry risk for retail trade is 44.6. Scores range from 33.3 (Wisconsin) to 59.2 (Mississippi), a spread of 26.0 points. Lower scores indicate more favorable conditions for new businesses.

Not in Retail Trade?

Compare entry conditions across other sectors.

NAICS 23 Construction NAICS 62 Healthcare and Social Assistance NAICS 72 Accommodation and Food Services NAICS 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services NAICS 52 Finance and Insurance NAICS 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing NAICS 56 Administrative and Support Services NAICS 51 Information NAICS 81 Other Services

How We Calculate Entry Risk

Entry Risk Score combines five normalized metrics: firm retention rates, growth momentum, market volatility, establishment density, and wage pressure. All indices are scaled 0-100 for consistency.

Read full methodology →