NAICS 44-45

Retail Trade in Texas: 2026 Market Risk Report

Entry risk 41.6 (Moderate), ranked #17 of 51 states. 85,556 establishments, 1,400,612 jobs.

Entry Risk Assessment

Entry Risk Score 41.6
Low 0-30
Moderate 30-42
Elevated 42-55
High 55+
Moderate

ⓘ Lower is better. Relative to national retail trade average.

Texas's retail trade sector shows high establishment density (top 10 nationally) paired with firm retention in the bottom 10. This combination indicates elevated competitive pressure on new market entrants.

5-Year Firm Retention
11.8%
Percentile within industry
Rank #46 of 51 states
Growth Momentum
↑ 63.0
Scale of 0-100
Rank #11 of 51 states
Establishment Density
24.4
vs. national average
Rank #7 of 51 states
Market Volatility
10.8
Lower is more stable
Wage Pressure Index
25.3
Labor cost pressure

85,556 Establishments in Texas

85,556
Establishments
+0.9% YoY
1,400,612
Total Employment
+0.4% YoY
$42,727
Average Annual Wage
+2.1% YoY

Texas vs National Retail Trade Average

How Texas's retail trade market compares to the national average across all 51 states.

Metric TX National Difference
Entry Risk Score 41.6 44.6 -3.0
5-Year Retention 11.8% 51.0% -39.2
Growth Momentum 63.0 42.9 +20.1
Market Volatility 10.8 24.4 -13.5
Establishment Density 24.4 49.0 -24.6
Wage Pressure 25.3 30.5 -5.2

Green = favorable vs national average. Red = less favorable. Metrics are relative within retail trade only.

Texas Ranks #17 of 51 for Retail Trade

Texas ranks #17 out of 51 states for retail trade market entry conditions.

Retail Trade Entry Risk by State

Rank State Risk Score Classification
#1 Wisconsin 33.3 moderate
#2 Nebraska 35.9 moderate
#3 Nevada 37.0 moderate
#4 Massachusetts 37.1 moderate
#5 Alaska 37.2 moderate
#17 Texas You 41.6 moderate
Entry Risk by State Alaska — 37.2 · #5 Alabama — 46.4 · #36 Arkansas — 51.8 · #44 Arizona — 44.9 · #32 California — 44.0 · #28 Colorado — 42.9 · #23 Connecticut — 44.7 · #31 District of Columbia — 58.0 · #50 Delaware — 41.8 · #19 Florida — 51.0 · #43 Georgia — 47.5 · #38 Hawaii — 56.1 · #48 Iowa — 40.8 · #16 Idaho — 40.1 · #12 Illinois — 48.1 · #39 Indiana — 39.8 · #10 Kansas — 40.4 · #14 Kentucky — 46.4 · #36 Louisiana — 52.3 · #46 Massachusetts — 37.1 · #4 Maryland — 43.6 · #26 Maine — 44.1 · #29 Michigan — 40.5 · #15 Minnesota — 39.6 · #9 Missouri — 50.6 · #42 Mississippi — 59.2 · #51 Montana — 45.8 · #34 North Carolina — 43.4 · #25 North Dakota — 49.9 · #41 Nebraska — 35.9 · #2 New Hampshire — 48.7 · #40 New Jersey — 43.7 · #27 New Mexico — 39.9 · #11 Nevada — 37.0 · #3 New York — 57.2 · #49 Ohio — 39.2 · #8 Oklahoma — 46.3 · #35 Oregon — 42.9 · #24 Pennsylvania — 38.1 · #6 Rhode Island — 42.3 · #21 South Carolina — 44.3 · #30 South Dakota — 38.9 · #7 Tennessee — 42.8 · #22 Texas — 41.6 · #17 Utah — 40.3 · #13 Virginia — 41.6 · #17 Vermont — 52.1 · #45 Washington — 42.0 · #20 Wisconsin — 33.3 · #1 West Virginia — 52.8 · #47 Wyoming — 44.9 · #33
Low Moderate Elevated High

Tap a state to view details

About Entry Risk Score: A weighted composite of firm retention, growth momentum, market volatility, establishment density, and wage pressure. Lower scores indicate more favorable conditions. Read full methodology →

Data Sources

Data period: 2024. Last updated: February 2026. Next refresh expected: Q2 2026 (BLS QCEW update).

Compare to Another State

How does Texas stack up against other states for retail trade?

Select a state above to see the comparison

Retail Trade in Neighboring States

How Texas's retail trade market compares to bordering states.

New Mexico 39.9 #11/51 Oklahoma 46.3 #35/51 Arkansas 51.8 #44/51 Louisiana 52.3 #46/51

Other Industries in Texas

Construction → Healthcare and Social Assistance → Accommodation and Food Services → Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services → Finance and Insurance → Real Estate and Rental and Leasing → Administrative and Support Services → Information → Other Services →