NAICS 44-45

Retail Trade in Arizona: 2026 Market Risk Report

Entry risk 44.9 (Elevated), ranked #32 of 51 states. 17,270 establishments, 345,178 jobs.

Best retail trade metro in Arizona
Sierra Vista-Douglas 42.9 #69/378 nationwide · 292 firms

Entry Risk Assessment

Entry Risk Score 44.9
Low 0-30
Moderate 30-42
Elevated 42-55
High 55+
Elevated

ⓘ Lower is better. Relative to national retail trade average.

⛔High Barrier to Entry⚡Volatile Market

Arizona's retail trade sector shows high establishment density (top 5 nationally) paired with firm retention in the bottom 5. This combination indicates elevated competitive pressure on new market entrants.

5-Year Firm Retention
9.8%
Percentile within industry
Rank #47 of 51 states
Growth Momentum
↑ 70.6
Scale of 0-100
Rank #6 of 51 states
Establishment Density
0.0
vs. national average
Rank #1 of 51 states
Market Volatility
50.6
Lower is more stable
Wage Pressure Index
49.3
Labor cost pressure

17,270 Establishments in Arizona

17,270
Establishments
+1.4% YoY
345,178
Total Employment
+0.2% YoY
$46,521
Average Annual Wage
+3.9% YoY

Retail Trade in Arizona Metro Areas

7 metro areas with retail trade data in Arizona. Lower Metro Market Score = more favorable conditions.

Sierra Vista-Douglas 42.9 #69/378 · 292 firms Yuma 50.0 #138/378 · 438 firms Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler 58.7 #241/378 · 11,350 firms Lake Havasu City-Kingman 59.0 #244/378 · 604 firms Tucson 60.5 #260/378 · 2,230 firms Prescott Valley-Prescott 63.2 #288/378 · 750 firms Flagstaff 64.4 #305/378 · 448 firms

Arizona vs National Retail Trade Average

How Arizona's retail trade market compares to the national average across all 51 states.

Metric AZ National Difference
Entry Risk Score 44.9 44.6 +0.3
5-Year Retention 9.8% 51.0% -41.2
Growth Momentum 70.6 42.9 +27.7
Market Volatility 50.6 24.4 +26.2
Establishment Density 0.0 49.0 -49.0
Wage Pressure 49.3 30.5 +18.8

Green = favorable vs national average. Red = less favorable. Metrics are relative within retail trade only.

Arizona Ranks #32 of 51 for Retail Trade

Arizona ranks #32 out of 51 states for retail trade market entry conditions.

Retail Trade Entry Risk by State

Rank State Risk Score Classification
#1 Wisconsin 33.3 moderate
#2 Nebraska 35.9 moderate
#3 Nevada 37.0 moderate
#4 Massachusetts 37.1 moderate
#5 Alaska 37.2 moderate
#32 Arizona You 44.9 elevated
Entry Risk by State Alaska — 37.2 · #5 Alabama — 46.4 · #36 Arkansas — 51.8 · #44 Arizona — 44.9 · #32 California — 44.0 · #28 Colorado — 42.9 · #23 Connecticut — 44.7 · #31 District of Columbia — 58.0 · #50 Delaware — 41.8 · #19 Florida — 51.0 · #43 Georgia — 47.5 · #38 Hawaii — 56.1 · #48 Iowa — 40.8 · #16 Idaho — 40.1 · #12 Illinois — 48.1 · #39 Indiana — 39.8 · #10 Kansas — 40.4 · #14 Kentucky — 46.4 · #36 Louisiana — 52.3 · #46 Massachusetts — 37.1 · #4 Maryland — 43.6 · #26 Maine — 44.1 · #29 Michigan — 40.5 · #15 Minnesota — 39.6 · #9 Missouri — 50.6 · #42 Mississippi — 59.2 · #51 Montana — 45.8 · #34 North Carolina — 43.4 · #25 North Dakota — 49.9 · #41 Nebraska — 35.9 · #2 New Hampshire — 48.7 · #40 New Jersey — 43.7 · #27 New Mexico — 39.9 · #11 Nevada — 37.0 · #3 New York — 57.2 · #49 Ohio — 39.2 · #8 Oklahoma — 46.3 · #35 Oregon — 42.9 · #24 Pennsylvania — 38.1 · #6 Rhode Island — 42.3 · #21 South Carolina — 44.3 · #30 South Dakota — 38.9 · #7 Tennessee — 42.8 · #22 Texas — 41.6 · #17 Utah — 40.3 · #13 Virginia — 41.6 · #17 Vermont — 52.1 · #45 Washington — 42.0 · #20 Wisconsin — 33.3 · #1 West Virginia — 52.8 · #47 Wyoming — 44.9 · #33
Low Moderate Elevated High

Tap a state to view details

About Entry Risk Score: A weighted composite of firm retention, growth momentum, market volatility, establishment density, and wage pressure. Lower scores indicate more favorable conditions. Read full methodology →

Data Sources

Data period: 2024. Last updated: February 2026. Next refresh expected: Q2 2026 (BLS QCEW update).

Compare to Another State

How does Arizona stack up against other states for retail trade?

Select a state above to see the comparison

Retail Trade in Neighboring States

How Arizona's retail trade market compares to bordering states.

Nevada 37.0 #3/51 New Mexico 39.9 #11/51 Utah 40.3 #13/51 Colorado 42.9 #23/51 California 44.0 #28/51

Other Industries in Arizona

Construction → Healthcare and Social Assistance → Accommodation and Food Services → Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services → Finance and Insurance → Real Estate and Rental and Leasing → Administrative and Support Services → Information → Other Services →