NAICS 44-45

Retail Trade in California: 2026 Market Risk Report

Entry risk 44.0 (Elevated), ranked #28 of 51 states. 106,789 establishments, 1,586,477 jobs.

Entry Risk Assessment

Entry Risk Score 44.0
Low 0-30
Moderate 30-42
Elevated 42-55
High 55+
Elevated

ⓘ Lower is better. Relative to national retail trade average.

California's retail trade sector shows high establishment density (top 5 nationally) paired with firm retention in the bottom 10. This combination indicates elevated competitive pressure on new market entrants.

5-Year Firm Retention
13.7%
Percentile within industry
Rank #45 of 51 states
Growth Momentum
↑ 62.2
Scale of 0-100
Rank #12 of 51 states
Establishment Density
13.4
vs. national average
Rank #4 of 51 states
Market Volatility
31.5
Lower is more stable
Wage Pressure Index
37.3
Labor cost pressure

106,789 Establishments in California

106,789
Establishments
-0.9% YoY
1,586,477
Total Employment
-1.2% YoY
$48,937
Average Annual Wage
+3.0% YoY

California vs National Retail Trade Average

How California's retail trade market compares to the national average across all 51 states.

Metric CA National Difference
Entry Risk Score 44.0 44.6 -0.6
5-Year Retention 13.7% 51.0% -37.3
Growth Momentum 62.2 42.9 +19.3
Market Volatility 31.5 24.4 +7.1
Establishment Density 13.4 49.0 -35.6
Wage Pressure 37.3 30.5 +6.8

Green = favorable vs national average. Red = less favorable. Metrics are relative within retail trade only.

California Ranks #28 of 51 for Retail Trade

California ranks #28 out of 51 states for retail trade market entry conditions.

Retail Trade Entry Risk by State

Rank State Risk Score Classification
#1 Wisconsin 33.3 moderate
#2 Nebraska 35.9 moderate
#3 Nevada 37.0 moderate
#4 Massachusetts 37.1 moderate
#5 Alaska 37.2 moderate
#28 California You 44.0 elevated
Entry Risk by State Alaska — 37.2 · #5 Alabama — 46.4 · #36 Arkansas — 51.8 · #44 Arizona — 44.9 · #32 California — 44.0 · #28 Colorado — 42.9 · #23 Connecticut — 44.7 · #31 District of Columbia — 58.0 · #50 Delaware — 41.8 · #19 Florida — 51.0 · #43 Georgia — 47.5 · #38 Hawaii — 56.1 · #48 Iowa — 40.8 · #16 Idaho — 40.1 · #12 Illinois — 48.1 · #39 Indiana — 39.8 · #10 Kansas — 40.4 · #14 Kentucky — 46.4 · #36 Louisiana — 52.3 · #46 Massachusetts — 37.1 · #4 Maryland — 43.6 · #26 Maine — 44.1 · #29 Michigan — 40.5 · #15 Minnesota — 39.6 · #9 Missouri — 50.6 · #42 Mississippi — 59.2 · #51 Montana — 45.8 · #34 North Carolina — 43.4 · #25 North Dakota — 49.9 · #41 Nebraska — 35.9 · #2 New Hampshire — 48.7 · #40 New Jersey — 43.7 · #27 New Mexico — 39.9 · #11 Nevada — 37.0 · #3 New York — 57.2 · #49 Ohio — 39.2 · #8 Oklahoma — 46.3 · #35 Oregon — 42.9 · #24 Pennsylvania — 38.1 · #6 Rhode Island — 42.3 · #21 South Carolina — 44.3 · #30 South Dakota — 38.9 · #7 Tennessee — 42.8 · #22 Texas — 41.6 · #17 Utah — 40.3 · #13 Virginia — 41.6 · #17 Vermont — 52.1 · #45 Washington — 42.0 · #20 Wisconsin — 33.3 · #1 West Virginia — 52.8 · #47 Wyoming — 44.9 · #33
Low Moderate Elevated High

Tap a state to view details

About Entry Risk Score: A weighted composite of firm retention, growth momentum, market volatility, establishment density, and wage pressure. Lower scores indicate more favorable conditions. Read full methodology →

Data Sources

Data period: 2024. Last updated: February 2026. Next refresh expected: Q2 2026 (BLS QCEW update).

Compare to Another State

How does California stack up against other states for retail trade?

Select a state above to see the comparison

Retail Trade in Neighboring States

How California's retail trade market compares to bordering states.

Nevada 37.0 #3/51 Oregon 42.9 #24/51 Arizona 44.9 #32/51

Other Industries in California

Construction → Healthcare and Social Assistance → Accommodation and Food Services → Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services → Finance and Insurance → Real Estate and Rental and Leasing → Administrative and Support Services → Information → Other Services →