NAICS 44-45

Retail Trade in Virginia: 2026 Market Risk Report

Entry risk 41.6 (Moderate), ranked #17 of 51 states. 25,562 establishments, 392,040 jobs.

Entry Risk Assessment

Entry Risk Score 41.6
Low 0-30
Moderate 30-42
Elevated 42-55
High 55+
Moderate

ⓘ Lower is better. Relative to national retail trade average.

The retail trade sector in Virginia is tracking close to the U.S. baseline, with no extreme signals in volatility, saturation, or wage pressure. Entry conditions are within the national median range.

5-Year Firm Retention
37.3%
Percentile within industry
Rank #33 of 51 states
Growth Momentum
35.2
Scale of 0-100
Rank #28 of 51 states
Establishment Density
25.6
vs. national average
Rank #8 of 51 states
Market Volatility
8.0
Lower is more stable
Wage Pressure Index
22.7
Labor cost pressure

25,562 Establishments in Virginia

25,562
Establishments
+0.5% YoY
392,040
Total Employment
-0.3% YoY
$39,467
Average Annual Wage
+1.9% YoY

Virginia vs National Retail Trade Average

How Virginia's retail trade market compares to the national average across all 51 states.

Metric VA National Difference
Entry Risk Score 41.6 44.6 -3.0
5-Year Retention 37.3% 51.0% -13.8
Growth Momentum 35.2 42.9 -7.7
Market Volatility 8.0 24.4 -16.4
Establishment Density 25.6 49.0 -23.4
Wage Pressure 22.7 30.5 -7.8

Green = favorable vs national average. Red = less favorable. Metrics are relative within retail trade only.

Virginia Ranks #17 of 51 for Retail Trade

Virginia ranks #17 out of 51 states for retail trade market entry conditions.

Retail Trade Entry Risk by State

Rank State Risk Score Classification
#1 Wisconsin 33.3 moderate
#2 Nebraska 35.9 moderate
#3 Nevada 37.0 moderate
#4 Massachusetts 37.1 moderate
#5 Alaska 37.2 moderate
#17 Virginia You 41.6 moderate
Entry Risk by State Alaska — 37.2 · #5 Alabama — 46.4 · #36 Arkansas — 51.8 · #44 Arizona — 44.9 · #32 California — 44.0 · #28 Colorado — 42.9 · #23 Connecticut — 44.7 · #31 District of Columbia — 58.0 · #50 Delaware — 41.8 · #19 Florida — 51.0 · #43 Georgia — 47.5 · #38 Hawaii — 56.1 · #48 Iowa — 40.8 · #16 Idaho — 40.1 · #12 Illinois — 48.1 · #39 Indiana — 39.8 · #10 Kansas — 40.4 · #14 Kentucky — 46.4 · #36 Louisiana — 52.3 · #46 Massachusetts — 37.1 · #4 Maryland — 43.6 · #26 Maine — 44.1 · #29 Michigan — 40.5 · #15 Minnesota — 39.6 · #9 Missouri — 50.6 · #42 Mississippi — 59.2 · #51 Montana — 45.8 · #34 North Carolina — 43.4 · #25 North Dakota — 49.9 · #41 Nebraska — 35.9 · #2 New Hampshire — 48.7 · #40 New Jersey — 43.7 · #27 New Mexico — 39.9 · #11 Nevada — 37.0 · #3 New York — 57.2 · #49 Ohio — 39.2 · #8 Oklahoma — 46.3 · #35 Oregon — 42.9 · #24 Pennsylvania — 38.1 · #6 Rhode Island — 42.3 · #21 South Carolina — 44.3 · #30 South Dakota — 38.9 · #7 Tennessee — 42.8 · #22 Texas — 41.6 · #17 Utah — 40.3 · #13 Virginia — 41.6 · #17 Vermont — 52.1 · #45 Washington — 42.0 · #20 Wisconsin — 33.3 · #1 West Virginia — 52.8 · #47 Wyoming — 44.9 · #33
Low Moderate Elevated High

Tap a state to view details

About Entry Risk Score: A weighted composite of firm retention, growth momentum, market volatility, establishment density, and wage pressure. Lower scores indicate more favorable conditions. Read full methodology →

Data Sources

Data period: 2024. Last updated: February 2026. Next refresh expected: Q2 2026 (BLS QCEW update).

Compare to Another State

How does Virginia stack up against other states for retail trade?

Select a state above to see the comparison

Retail Trade in Neighboring States

How Virginia's retail trade market compares to bordering states.

Tennessee 42.8 #22/51 North Carolina 43.4 #25/51 Maryland 43.6 #26/51 Kentucky 46.4 #36/51 West Virginia 52.8 #47/51 District of Columbia 58.0 #50/51

Other Industries in Virginia

Construction → Healthcare and Social Assistance → Accommodation and Food Services → Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services → Finance and Insurance → Real Estate and Rental and Leasing → Administrative and Support Services → Information → Other Services →