NAICS 44-45

Retail Trade in Vermont: 2026 Market Risk Report

Entry risk 52.1 (Elevated), ranked #45 of 51 states. 2,927 establishments, 35,820 jobs.

Entry Risk Assessment

Entry Risk Score 52.1
Low 0-30
Moderate 30-42
Elevated 42-55
High 55+
Elevated

ⓘ Lower is better. Relative to national retail trade average.

The retail trade sector in Vermont is tracking close to the U.S. baseline, with no extreme signals in volatility, saturation, or wage pressure. Entry conditions are within the national median range.

5-Year Firm Retention
98.0%
Percentile within industry
Rank #2 of 51 states
Growth Momentum
15.8
Scale of 0-100
Rank #49 of 51 states
Establishment Density
100.0
vs. national average
Rank #51 of 51 states
Market Volatility
45.0
Lower is more stable
Wage Pressure Index
25.3
Labor cost pressure

2,927 Establishments in Vermont

2,927
Establishments
+0.9% YoY
35,820
Total Employment
+0.5% YoY
$42,057
Average Annual Wage
+2.1% YoY

Vermont vs National Retail Trade Average

How Vermont's retail trade market compares to the national average across all 51 states.

Metric VT National Difference
Entry Risk Score 52.1 44.6 +7.5
5-Year Retention 98.0% 51.0% +47.0
Growth Momentum 15.8 42.9 -27.1
Market Volatility 45.0 24.4 +20.6
Establishment Density 100.0 49.0 +51.0
Wage Pressure 25.3 30.5 -5.2

Green = favorable vs national average. Red = less favorable. Metrics are relative within retail trade only.

Vermont Ranks #45 of 51 for Retail Trade

Vermont ranks #45 out of 51 states for retail trade market entry conditions.

Retail Trade Entry Risk by State

Rank State Risk Score Classification
#1 Wisconsin 33.3 moderate
#2 Nebraska 35.9 moderate
#3 Nevada 37.0 moderate
#4 Massachusetts 37.1 moderate
#5 Alaska 37.2 moderate
#45 Vermont You 52.1 elevated
Entry Risk by State Alaska — 37.2 · #5 Alabama — 46.4 · #36 Arkansas — 51.8 · #44 Arizona — 44.9 · #32 California — 44.0 · #28 Colorado — 42.9 · #23 Connecticut — 44.7 · #31 District of Columbia — 58.0 · #50 Delaware — 41.8 · #19 Florida — 51.0 · #43 Georgia — 47.5 · #38 Hawaii — 56.1 · #48 Iowa — 40.8 · #16 Idaho — 40.1 · #12 Illinois — 48.1 · #39 Indiana — 39.8 · #10 Kansas — 40.4 · #14 Kentucky — 46.4 · #36 Louisiana — 52.3 · #46 Massachusetts — 37.1 · #4 Maryland — 43.6 · #26 Maine — 44.1 · #29 Michigan — 40.5 · #15 Minnesota — 39.6 · #9 Missouri — 50.6 · #42 Mississippi — 59.2 · #51 Montana — 45.8 · #34 North Carolina — 43.4 · #25 North Dakota — 49.9 · #41 Nebraska — 35.9 · #2 New Hampshire — 48.7 · #40 New Jersey — 43.7 · #27 New Mexico — 39.9 · #11 Nevada — 37.0 · #3 New York — 57.2 · #49 Ohio — 39.2 · #8 Oklahoma — 46.3 · #35 Oregon — 42.9 · #24 Pennsylvania — 38.1 · #6 Rhode Island — 42.3 · #21 South Carolina — 44.3 · #30 South Dakota — 38.9 · #7 Tennessee — 42.8 · #22 Texas — 41.6 · #17 Utah — 40.3 · #13 Virginia — 41.6 · #17 Vermont — 52.1 · #45 Washington — 42.0 · #20 Wisconsin — 33.3 · #1 West Virginia — 52.8 · #47 Wyoming — 44.9 · #33
Low Moderate Elevated High

Tap a state to view details

About Entry Risk Score: A weighted composite of firm retention, growth momentum, market volatility, establishment density, and wage pressure. Lower scores indicate more favorable conditions. Read full methodology →

Data Sources

Data period: 2024. Last updated: February 2026. Next refresh expected: Q2 2026 (BLS QCEW update).

Compare to Another State

How does Vermont stack up against other states for retail trade?

Select a state above to see the comparison

Retail Trade in Neighboring States

How Vermont's retail trade market compares to bordering states.

Massachusetts 37.1 #4/51 New Hampshire 48.7 #40/51 New York 57.2 #49/51

Other Industries in Vermont

Construction → Healthcare and Social Assistance → Accommodation and Food Services → Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services → Finance and Insurance → Real Estate and Rental and Leasing → Administrative and Support Services → Information → Other Services →